After a challenging quarter, the market is rebounding, with 9 of 14 tracked companies now posting positive 3-month returns. While growth continues, it has slowed modestly, suggesting a more measured expansion.
Figure 1: Stock Price Performance
(select payments equities; stock price % change to June 20, 2025)
- Broad market rebound: while no company saw a positive 3-month return in the prior edition of this report, 9 of the 14 companies are now positive over the last 3 months.
- Continued growth with some pockets of caution: for the most part, each of these companies continue to demonstrate solid growth; however, top-line growth has decelerated from prior quarters.
- Secular growth trends: among large public SaaS companies, embedded finance varies in scale and maturity; some have fully expanded beyond payments while others remain in the early days of monetization.
Figure 2: Valuation Metrics
(select payments equities; as of June 20, 2025)
Restaurant and Retail
- Shift 4: payment volume grew 35% YoY to $45B. Expects $80M of revenue synergies from Global Blue acquisition by 2027; main source is bundling embedded payments, VAT tax refunds, and DCC capabilities.
- Toast: payment volume rose 22% YoY to $42B. Strong enterprise push with marquee wins such as Applebee’s and Topgolf.
- Lightspeed: targeting 10-15% annual growth in customer locations over the next three years, driven by a rapid scaling of the outbound sales team.
- Block: received FDIC approval to use in-house bank to issue consumer loans for Cash App Borrow across the U.S. id-market sellers (>$500K GPV) increased from 39% to 41% of volume YoY.
E-commerce
- Shopify: Shopify Payments launched in 16 new markets, nearly doubling coverage to 39 countries. Multi-currency payouts also launched in 20 countries across Europe.
- WIX: delivered $57M of transaction revenue in Q4 (+23% YoY), driven by a meaningful step-up in take rates from further building out Wix Payments platform (GPV +12% YoY).
- BigCommerce: branded embedded payments offering slated for launch in early 2026 (BigCommerce Payments).
- GoDaddy: launched GoDaddy Capital and same day payouts; both receiving solid early traction.
B2B
- AvidXchange: announced a public-to-private acquisition led by TPG supported by Corpay; read Flagship's analysis here.
- Bill: total payments volume reached $79B, up 11% YoY across 30M transactions. Introduced beta offering of advanced ACH solution, targeting larger suppliers.
- Intuit: total online payment volume grew 18% YoY, accelerating slightly from the prior quarter.
Other Verticals
- Tyler Technologies: transaction revenue grew 19% YoY. Signed 96 new payment deals with software clients and closed a 5-year processing extension with Florida.
- ServiceTitan: gross transaction volume increased 22% YoY to 17.7B.
- Blackbaud: organic revenue (excl. sale of Everfi business) grew 5.8%.
Please do not hesitate to contact Peter Taylor at Peter@FlagshipAP.com or Tim Gallagher at Tim@FlagshipAP.com with comments and questions