Recent public market meltdown of North American B2B payments SaaS & fintechs likely to accelerate a wave of public-to-private M&A (along with other fintech domains). Market fundamentals, growth outlook, and opportunity for value creation in the sector remain healthy in the long term.
- 10 of 12 tracked publicly-traded B2B SaaS and Fintech Platforms have underperformed the S&P 500 index over this same period
- Such performance outcomes from B2B fintechs and other fintech domains (not illustrated) should increase public-to-private investment opportunities
General Commentary & Highlights
- Equity markets are extremely volatile presently due to political and macro-economic uncertainty.
- B2B fintech equities were already under valuation pressure in Q1 as investors became more bearish on the sector’s high growth expectations.
- Sustained share price pressure will stimulate acceleration of public-to-private deals in fintech, with these B2B fintechs being obvious potential targets.
- Despite the recent public market performance, we remain optimistic about the long-term health and growth outlook in B2B fintech, given the – strong growth tailwinds from ongoing digitization of B2B workflows and financial services (which we discuss in a recent Insight which you can find HERE).
AP Automation
- Corpay: Corporate Payments segment posted a healthy 26% top-line growth (10% overall), and adjusted EPS grew 21% YoY.
- BILL: Growth slowed from prior Qs and missed expectations. Core revenue rose 16%, while total payment volume grew 13%.
- AvidXchange: Q4 exceeded expectations in revenue, gross margin, EBITDA margin, and EPS, but the stock dropped lower than anticipated ’25 revenue guidance.
AR Automation
- Repay: Business Payments revenue and gross profit rose 76% and 60% YoY, while Consumer Payments dropped 7% YoY.
- BlackLine: Despite macro challenges and customer uncertainty, revenue still grew 9% YoY in Q4.
SMB Accounting
- Intuit: Total online volume grew 18% YoY, and Global Business Solutions revenue grew 19% YoY. Enterprise Suite shows strong uptake: Jan contracts signed were up 2x vs. November.
X-Border Fintech
- Payoneer: Stock dropped as Q4 earnings missed expectations. Payoneer posted 18% annual revenue growth and record ’24 B2B profit.
- Flywire: The education segment struggled, with Canadian higher education down 50% YoY. EPS fell to a loss, falling significantly short of estimates.
B2B T&E
- Expensify: Doubled market expectations for free cash flow ($24M vs. $10-12M). Expensify Card grew 54% YoY and 11% QoQ.
- WEX: Revised its long-term revenue growth outlook from 8-12% to 5-10%, reflecting macro pressures and a reset of expectations.
Please do not hesitate to contact Anupam Majumdar at Anupam@FlagshipAP.com or Rom Mascetti at Rom@FlagshipAP.com with comments and questions.