SaaS + fintech share prices have come under pressure in recent months due to rising fears of AI-led disruption. However, recent fundamentals paint a positive picture with continued top-line growth and margin expansion.

Ultimately, we believe the AI opportunity for many leading SaaS companies outweighs the potential risks. See our Q4 2025 earnings observations below and read more of our perspective on AI here.  

Figure 1: Stock Price Performance
(select equities; stock price % change to April 2, 2026)​

• Broad SaaS market headwinds:  Not a single company in our selection delivered a positive return in the past three or six months.  
• Oversold territory: The equity market’s rush out of SaaS stocks feels oversold as many will be net beneficiaries of AI (read more on Flagship’s perspective here).
• Fundamentals remain strong: Despite the market’s contraction, fintech revenue (transaction-based) grew 20% YoY on average in Q4 as leading SaaS players continue to drive monetization via embedded fintech products.
• Steady gross margin expansion: Gross profit grew 17% YoY on average in Q4 ’25, the tenth consecutive quarter of gross profit outpacing total revenue growth (15% YoY on average in Q4).  

Figure 2: Valuation Metrics
(select equities; as of April 2, 2026)​

Restaurant and Retail

• Shift4: gross revenue less network fees grew 23% organically and 46% including Global Blue and SmartPay acquisitions. Payment volume reached $209 billion.
  
• Toast: grew market share to 20% of US SMB and mid-market restaurants, doubling in last three years. Toast IQ, conversational AI assistant, is used by over half of all Toast locations within four months of launch.
  
• Lightspeed: gross payment volume grew 19% YoY. Monthly ARPU expanded 11% YoY to $660.
  
• Block: announced major headcount reduction (c.4k employees). Gross profit grew 24% YoY in Q4. Cash App monthly active users reached 59 million
  

E-commerce

• Shopify: Shopify Payments GMV grew 38% YoY to $84 billion in Q4 (68% of total GMV, up from 64% YoY). Q4 offline GMV grew 29% YoY; B2B GMV grew 84% YoY.
  
• WIX: 2025 gross payment volume grew 11% YoY to $3.7 billion. Base44’s vibe coding platform reached $100 million ARR.
  
• BigCommerce: BigCommerce Payments (in partnership with PayPal) launched late in Q1 2026.
  
• GoDaddy: Airo.ai platform is driving higher ARPU (+10% YoY to $242).
  

B2B

• BILL: AR/AP core revenue grew 11% YoY. Card payment volume grew 25% YoY, with AP card payment volume growing 160% YoY.
  
• Intuit: Total online payments volume grew 29% YoY (incl. Bill Pay). Enterprise Suite contracts grew 50% QoQ. Recently formed partnerships with OpenAI and Anthropic
  

Other Verticals

• Tyler Technologies: consolidated payment operations into a unified platform. Total bookings were roughly flat YoY in Q4 ’25
  
• ServiceTitan: gross transaction volume grew 16% YoY to $19.8 billion. Active customers grew 14% YoY to 10,800
  
• Blackbaud: organic revenue grew 6% YoY. Significant deleveraging from 2.9x in Q1 to 2.5x in Q4
  

Please do not hesitate to contact Peter Taylor at Peter@FlagshipAP.com or Tim Gallagher at Tim@FlagshipAP.com with comments and questions