Freepik
Perspective on Key Events
Perspective on Key Events
Joel Van Arsdale, Amilee Huang, and Arun Hilkemeijer • 18 November, 2024
General Commentary & Highlights
- Volatility: 53% of our select payments equities sample swung up or down by 10% or more and 30% swung up or down by 20% or more. Even modest misses produced sizable volatility to the downside.
- More winners than losers: Payments industry generally outperforming expectations in 2024.
- Small caps outperformed in Q3: A year ago, we were wrong about the challenging market conditions for small cap fintech stocks. Payoneer, Priority Technologies, Expensify, Avidxchange, Olo, and Lightspeed all exceeded expectations and traded up materially.
- Commerce platforms: Shopify, Toast, Lightspeed, exceeded expectations. Commerce software + embedded payments leaders continue to deliver impressive, sustainable growth buoyed by new embedded finance revenue streams.
- B2B fintechs: Bill, Avidxchange, Expensify, Corepay; Mostly outperform, Expensify specifically.
- X-border payment fintechs: Payoneer, Wise, D-Local: Most outperformed expectations.
- USD strength: USD strengthens post-election, BRL under pressure: Mercado Libre, PagSeguro, Stone Co.
For any questions please do not hesitate to contact Joel Van Arsdale at Joel@FlagshipAP.com.
General Commentary & Highlights
- Volatility: 53% of our select payments equities sample swung up or down by 10% or more and 30% swung up or down by 20% or more. Even modest misses produced sizable volatility to the downside.
- More winners than losers: Payments industry generally outperforming expectations in 2024.
- Small caps outperformed in Q3: A year ago, we were wrong about the challenging market conditions for small cap fintech stocks. Payoneer, Priority Technologies, Expensify, Avidxchange, Olo, and Lightspeed all exceeded expectations and traded up materially.
- Commerce platforms: Shopify, Toast, Lightspeed, exceeded expectations. Commerce software + embedded payments leaders continue to deliver impressive, sustainable growth buoyed by new embedded finance revenue streams.
- B2B fintechs: Bill, Avidxchange, Expensify, Corepay; Mostly outperform, Expensify specifically.
- X-border payment fintechs: Payoneer, Wise, D-Local: Most outperformed expectations.
- USD strength: USD strengthens post-election, BRL under pressure: Mercado Libre, PagSeguro, Stone Co.
For any questions please do not hesitate to contact Joel Van Arsdale at Joel@FlagshipAP.com.
